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  • India Invites a Guest, Watches Him Drown: How Modi’s Betrayal of BRICS and Iran Will Haunt New Delhi

    India Invites a Guest, Watches Him Drown: How Modi’s Betrayal of BRICS and Iran Will Haunt New Delhi

    By Amal Zadok

    India likes to pose as the voice of the Global South, the conscience of BRICS, the ancient civilisation that remembers its friends. But in the space of a few weeks, Narendra Modi has exposed that self‑image as a hollow slogan—by hugging Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump in public, and by standing in tacit silence while the United States sent an Iranian warship, invited to India as a guest, to the bottom of the Indian Ocean.

    This is not abstract. “alignment.” It is concrete betrayal.

    The embrace of Netanyahu and Trump

    Modi did not stumble into this crisis by accident. His late‑February 2026 visit to Israel was designed as theatre: a triumphant march into the Knesset, effusive praise for Israel as a “pillar of strength,” and a made‑for‑TV bromance with Benjamin Netanyahu at the very moment Israel is being accused of genocide in Gaza. India, once a loud supporter of Palestine, chose to appear on camera as Netanyahu’s willing partner while much of the world recoiled from Israel’s conduct.

    Layer Trump onto that picture and it gets uglier. Washington under Trump has fused its unconditional backing for Israel with a harsh sanctions regime against Iran and intense pressure on anyone buying Russian oil. Modi has responded not with strategic distance but with accommodation—trying to preserve US indulgence by signaling that India is firmly planted in the US–Israel camp, whatever the cost to its other relationships.

    For BRICS partners and the wider Global South, the optics are crystal clear: India is not “non‑aligned”; it is visually, politically, even emotionally aligned with two of the most polarising leaders on the planet, in the middle of a war that has set much of the world’s public opinion on fire.

    The warship India invited—and abandoned

    Then came IRIS Dena.

    Iran’s frigate sailed to India at New Delhi’s invitation, to take part in the Milan 2026 naval exercise—a show of maritime cooperation that India uses to burnish its image as a regional convenor. By all credible accounts, the Dena complied with the rules of the exercise, which bar participating ships from carrying live ammunition. Its crew were paraded as honoured guests in Indian ports, representatives of a proud navy from a fellow ancient civilisation.

    When the exercises ended, Dena sailed home. Somewhere south of Sri Lanka, in international waters close enough to India to make any serious power feel personally implicated, a US submarine torpedoed the ship and sent it to the bottom. Dozens upon dozens of sailors died; some reports speak of around 180 people aboard, with fewer than a third rescued, the rest missing or recovered as bodies.

    Iran insists the ship was unarmed in accordance with Indian exercise rules and has called the strike a flagrant violation of international law, an “atrocity at sea.” The US, for its part, refuses to concede it did anything wrong but does not dispute two core facts: this was a naval ship and it was coming from Indian‑hosted drills.

    Here is the brutal, inescapable truth: a state that invites another’s warship into its waters under ceremonial protection has a special responsibility—moral if not legal—for what happens next. India didn’t pull the trigger. But the trigger was pulled on a guest leaving India’s party, in India’s neighbourhood, after India’s hospitality had created the conditions for the voyage.

    From “civilisational bond” to calculated cowardice

    How did “Vishwaguru” India respond? With a whisper.

    There was no thunderous statement from the prime minister condemning the attack. No emergency press conference at which New Delhi declared that the killing of dozens of sailors who had just left its ports was intolerable, whoever fired the torpedoes. Instead there was a studied, calculated silence—a silence designed not to upset Washington, not to complicate Modi’s photo‑ops with Netanyahu, not to get in the way of India’s carefully curated image as the West’s “responsible” partner in Asia.

    Iranian officials and media have been blunt: they describe India’s lack of outrage as a betrayal of a civilisational relationship, a slap in the face after years of cooperation on ports like Chabahar and regional trade routes. They remind India that the Dena was in the Indian Ocean because India invited it and because Tehran still believed New Delhi’s talk about strategic autonomy and respect.

    Inside India, opposition figures have attacked Modi for treating the mass death of Iranian sailors off Sri Lanka as a non‑event, arguing that any nation claiming regional leadership had a duty to protest, at least formally, when an invited participant in its exercises is cut down. A country that cannot even defend the dignity of a guest naval contingent on its doorstep has no business lecturing the world about civilisational values.

    BRICS, energy and the price of betrayal

    The hypocrisy becomes more glaring when you set this against India’s rhetoric in BRICS.

    On paper, India speaks the language of the Global South: multipolarity, resistance to unilateral sanctions, collective energy security, new trade corridors beyond US control. It holds up BRICS as a vehicle for rebalancing power away from the West and insists that it will not be bullied into choices that undermine its strategic autonomy.

    In practice, India is discovering how expensive it is to betray that promise.

    For two years, discounted Russian oil was a lifeline, padding India’s current account and feeding its refineries with cheap crude that could be re‑exported as high‑margin products. That sweet deal is ending. New sanctions and enforcement measures have squeezed the shadow fleet and raised compliance risks, forcing Indian refiners to scale back Russian purchases. Moscow, no longer desperate, has made it clear the era of “friendship pricing” is over; this is just business now, not a political favour.

    At the very moment India needs energy flexibility, it has managed to anger another key regional partner—Iran—whose geography is vital for overland trade routes and whose hydrocarbons could have been part of any serious diversification strategy once sanctions shift. Instead of reinforcing a BRICS‑centred, sanctions‑resistant energy architecture, India has sent a message: if Washington torpedoes your ship after you visit us, we will bite our tongue and hope nobody notices.

    China, Russia, South Africa and others are watching. They see an India that wants all the benefits of BRICS—prestige, investment, alternative payment systems—without paying the price of true strategic independence from the US security umbrella. They see a country that wraps itself in the flag of the Global South while quietly falling into line when Washington sinks a BRICS partner’s ship almost within sight of India’s own shores.

    That is not leadership. It is opportunism—and increasingly clumsy opportunism at that.

    A reputation that will not recover easily

    The sinking of IRIS Dena will not be remembered, outside Iran and the region, for how many sailors died or which class of corvette went down. It will be remembered for what it revealed about India.

    It showed that Modi’s India is willing to invite a sanctioned partner into its exercises, show off that relationship when it suits domestic optics, and then retreat into guilty silence when the United States commits what many see as an act of naked aggression against that partner on India’s maritime doorstep. It showed that all the talk about civilisational bonds, BRICS solidarity and Global South leadership stops the moment it collides with the anxieties of a leadership desperate for Western approval.

    India has not just betrayed Iran. It has betrayed its own story about itself.

    In the end, no amount of spin will change the image that has burned itself into the memory of every capital from Tehran to Pretoria: an Iranian warship, unarmed under India’s own exercise rules, steaming home from an Indian‑hosted event through international waters; a US submarine striking it down in cold water; bodies in the Indian Ocean; and New Delhi, the self‑proclaimed Vishwaguru, staring at its shoes and saying nothing. BRICS will remember that silence. The Global South will remember that silence. And when the oil is more expensive, the discounts gone, and Modi’s government discovers that Washington’s embrace is as conditional as any other, India will have no one to blame but itself for the day it invited a guest to its table and then watched, mute and compliant, as its new friends dragged him outside and shot him in the street.

    References

    1.Al Jazeera. (2026, February 22). Modi’s Israel visit: Timeline of India’s relations with Israel, Palestine.

    2.BBC News. (2026, February 27). India and Israel pledge to boost ties in defence and technology.

    3.Ministry of External Affairs, India. (2026). India–Israel bilateral relations [PDF].

    4.Al Jazeera. (2026, February 23). How Modi “broke down walls” between India, Israel – at Palestine’s expense.

    5.Al Jazeera. (2026, February 26). From Gaza to defence: Five key takeaways from Indian PM Modi’s Israel visit.

    6.Reuters. (2025, November 25). India’s Russian oil binge to end in December as sanctions bite, sources say.

    7.Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2025, November 19). The impact of U.S. sanctions and tariffs on India’s Russian oil imports.

    8.Intellinews. (2026, March 9). “Now it’s business, not friendship”: Russia ends discounted oil sales to India.

    9.BBC News. (2026, March 6). The final voyage of the Iranian warship sunk by the US.

    10.PBS NewsHour. (2026, March 5). Iranian warship was sailing home from India exhibition when U.S. sank it.

    11.Deccan Herald. (2026, March 4). Iran’s warship sunk by US was unarmed, attack violates international law, Iranian officials say.

    12.The Economic Times. (2026, March 6). Iran slams US attack on “unarmed” vessel returning from India.

    13.The Guardian. (2026, March 4). US submarine sank Iranian warship off Sri Lanka’s coast.

    14.Bloomberg. (2026, March 4). US sinking of Iran ship piles pressure on India’s Modi.

    15.Al Jazeera. (2026, March 4). At least 100 people missing after Iranian military ship sinks off Sri Lanka coast.

    16.Naval News. (2026, March 3). US forces sink Iran’s Jamaran-class corvette, CENTCOM confirms.

    17. BRICS 2026 Global Eye Intelligence. (2026, February 12–13). BRICS 2026 energy security and India’s blueprint for renewable market integration.

    ©️2026 Amal Zadok. All rights reserved.

  • Oil for Armageddon: How Washington Is Seizing Venezuela to Fight Its Future War with Iran

    Oil for Armageddon: How Washington Is Seizing Venezuela to Fight Its Future War with Iran

    The pattern of U.S. moves on Venezuelan oil, combined with the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, makes it plausible that Washington is positioning itself for a future confrontation with Iran in which Gulf oil flows could be disrupted, while Venezuelan crude serves as a non‑Hormuz fallback for the U.S. and Israel. The recent U.S. attack on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and their transfer to New York on narcotics and related charges do not undermine this thesis; they expose how “drug enforcement” has become the legal façade for a resource‑seizure operation aimed at securing oil for a long war scenario.

    The scale of Venezuela’s oil treasure

    Any geopolitical argument about Venezuelan oil must start with sheer scale. Venezuela today holds the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, with estimates around 300–303 billion barrels, or roughly 17–18 percent of all known reserves, surpassing even Saudi Arabia. In other words, this one Latin American country, within flight distance of Florida, controls more oil underground than the entire United States, which has around 55 billion barrels of proven reserves.

    Those reserves are not just large but strategically tempting. Much of Venezuelan crude is heavy, but U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are precisely configured to process heavy and extra‑heavy oil, historically imported from Venezuela and Mexico. In a world where Middle East supplies become uncertain, a political arrangement that gives Washington decisive leverage over the biggest single reserve base in the world is an energy security dream.

    From sanctions to open seizure: Maduro in New York

    For years, Washington relied on sanctions, asset freezes, and indictments to squeeze Caracas while stopping short of open war. The narco‑terrorism case filed in New York against Maduro and other Venezuelan officials framed the country’s leadership as a criminal cartel, preparing public opinion for more extreme measures. That legal architecture has now been matched by force: U.S. strikes on Venezuela, the capture of Maduro and his wife, and their transfer to New York on drug and criminal charges mark a historic escalation from economic warfare to direct regime decapitation.

    Crucially, this escalation has been accompanied by unprecedented candor from Donald Trump about what comes next. He has publicly stated that the United States will “run” Venezuela “for now,” asserted that the U.S. “built” Venezuela’s oil industry in the past, and pledged that American companies will return to “rebuild” and tap its oil reserves—framing this as an open‑ended, effectively indefinite arrangement. In other words, the kidnapping of a sitting president on drug charges is not the consummation of a moral crusade against narcotics; it is the opening move in a new phase where Washington claims the right to administer, and profit from, the world’s largest oil reserves.

    Why the Strait of Hormuz terrifies planners

    The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime corridor between Iran and Oman, the only sea exit for the oil‑rich Persian Gulf. In a typical recent year, roughly 20–21 million barrels of oil per day have transited this passage, about 20–21 percent of total global petroleum liquids consumption and over one‑quarter of all seaborne oil trade.

    For decades, U.S. planners have quietly admitted what they seldom say openly: Hormuz is the soft underbelly of the global oil system. Around 80 percent of the crude that moves through it goes to Asian markets like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, but any serious disruption sends benchmark prices soaring and hits Western economies as well. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close or disrupt Hormuz if attacked and has demonstrated its capacity to harass or seize tankers, mine shipping lanes, and launch missiles at regional infrastructure.

    In a full‑scale U.S.–Iran or Israel–Iran war, Hormuz does not need to be “completely shut” to cause chaos. Sporadic attacks, insurance spikes, and partial interruptions could remove several million barrels a day from the market for months, triggering price shocks, recession risks, and political backlash in oil‑importing democracies. This is the nightmare scenario for Washington: a conflict it believes is necessary for regional dominance colliding with its own population’s intolerance for sky‑high oil prices and economic free‑fall.

    Linking the dots: Venezuelan oil as war insurance

    Once the strategic importance of Hormuz is understood, U.S. behavior toward Venezuela stops looking random. Over the last decade, Washington has oscillated between punishing Caracas with sanctions and selectively easing restrictions to allow specific companies to re‑enter the Venezuelan oil sector under tight U.S. licensing. That pattern looked less like moral outrage and more like controlled positioning: weaken the Maduro government politically, while keeping the door open for U.S. and allied corporate access to the oil fields and infrastructure.

    The post‑capture phase clarifies that logic. With Maduro removed and Trump openly declaring that the United States is taking indefinite control of Venezuela, Washington has maximal leverage to shape any “transitional” administration, dictate terms to state oil company PDVSA, and secure contracts for U.S. and European majors under the umbrella of American military and legal control. The same legal system that now holds Maduro and his wife on drug charges in New York will be used to claim the moral high ground, while U.S. energy companies are presented as the responsible adults arriving to restore order and “get the oil flowing again.”

    To see why this matters for a future Iran war, imagine a scenario in which Iranian mines and missiles reduce tanker traffic through Hormuz by a third for several months. The resulting loss of millions of barrels per day would send global prices spiralling and force consuming states to scramble for alternative supplies. In that context, U.S.‑linked production in Venezuela—now explicitly under a U.S. “run” arrangement with indefinite control—could be ramped up and redirected to cushion the blow for North America and its closest allies. Washington would not be able to replace every lost Gulf barrel, but it would possess a strategic tap that others, especially rival powers, do not control.

    Beyond democracy talk: energy security and Israel

    Officially, U.S. leaders justify both the earlier sanctions and the latest military operation as a defense of democracy, human rights, and the integrity of the international drug control regime. Yet Washington maintains close partnerships with Gulf monarchies whose political systems are far more autocratic than Caracas at its worst, and Trump himself has pardoned or commuted sentences for U.S.‑linked traffickers and allies, undermining the supposed moral consistency of the “war on drugs.” 

    Set alongside the explicit promise that the U.S. will now “run” Venezuela indefinitely and unleash its oil potential, the common denominator is not liberal values but strategic oil supply and alignment with U.S. and Israeli military objectives in the Middle East.

    Israel’s position is central here. Any large regional war involving Iran will almost certainly involve Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear, missile, or command sites, prompting Iranian retaliation via proxies and potentially via direct attacks on Gulf infrastructure and shipping. Israeli and U.S. analysts openly discuss the risk of Hezbollah rockets, Iraqi militias, and Yemeni missiles converging on U.S. bases, desalination plants, and oil installations in a multi‑front escalation. For Washington, guaranteeing Israel’s ability to wage such a campaign without collapsing Western economies requires pre‑securing alternative oil streams that bypass the vulnerable chokepoints Iran can threaten. Venezuelan crude, moved across the Caribbean and Atlantic to U.S. and European refineries, would be largely immune to Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions.

    Seen from this angle, the armed seizure of Venezuela’s head of state on narco‑charges, and Trump’s boast that the U.S. is taking indefinite control of the country, is not just a shocking violation of sovereignty; it is a step in a broader war‑planning architecture. Control over the world’s largest oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere acts as a form of insurance policy: if Iran makes good on its threats, the U.S. can lean on Venezuelan barrels to stabilize its own market and cushion the shock for its allies.

    The logic of pre‑emptive control

    Energy planners think in decades, not news cycles. The fact that most Hormuz flows currently go to Asia does not reduce the strategic risk for the United States; it amplifies it, because China and India could leverage their access—or their sudden loss of access—to reshape global power balances during a crisis. If the U.S. is preparing for a world where confrontation with Iran, and by extension with Iran’s partners, becomes more likely, then securing a hemispheric oil fortress in Venezuela becomes rational from a cold strategic standpoint.

    By tightening sanctions, escalating to military strikes, physically removing the elected president under a cloud of drug charges, and now declaring indefinite U.S. control of the country, Washington builds a future in which any government in Caracas—friend, foe, or “transitional”—must negotiate oil policy under the shadow of American legal, military, and financial power. The goal is not merely to deny revenue to a hostile regime but to ensure that, when the next major war in the Middle East breaks out, those 300‑plus billion barrels sit within a system of contracts, infrastructure, and shipping lanes Washington can rapidly mobilize. In that scenario, Venezuela ceases to be a sovereign energy actor and becomes, in effect, a strategic fuel depot for a distant conflict in the Persian Gulf.

    References

    1.Al Jazeera. (2025, September 4). Venezuela has the world’s most oil: Why doesn’t it earn more from exports?

    2.BBC News. (2026, January 3). What we know about Maduro’s capture and US plan to “run” Venezuela.

    3.CBS News. (2026, January 3). U.S. strikes Venezuela and captures Maduro; Trump says U.S. will run the country.

    4.CNN. (2025, June 23). What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it so significant?

    5.CNN. (2026, January 4). Maduro in U.S. custody after surprise Venezuela operation.

    6.Fox Business. (2026, January 2). Trump pledges U.S. return to Venezuela oil industry after Maduro capture.

    7.Fox News. (2026, January 3). Nicolás Maduro arrives in New York after capture; faces U.S. drug charges.

    8.NPR. (2026, January 3). What are the charges against Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro?

    9.NPR. (2026, January 3). Maduro faces drug charges in U.S. even as Trump freed other traffickers.

    10.U.S. Department of Justice. (2025, February 4). Nicolás Maduro Moros and 14 current and former Venezuelan officials charged with narco‑terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking and other criminal charges.

    11.ABC News (Australia). (2026, January 3). Donald Trump says US will run Venezuela for now after capture of Nicolás Maduro.

    12.Los Angeles Times. (2026, January 3). Trump says U.S. will “run” Venezuela after capturing Maduro in audacious attack.

    13.PBS NewsHour. (2026, January 3). A timeline of U.S. military escalation against Venezuela leading to Maduro’s capture.

    14.The New Yorker. (2026, January 3). The brazen illegality of Trump’s Venezuela operation.

    15.U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2023, November 20). The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.

    16.U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2025, June 15). Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint.

    17.Worldometers. (2024, October 31). Venezuela oil reserves, production and consumption.

    18.World Population Review. (2025, December 17). Oil reserves by country 2025.

    19.Newsweek. (2026, January 3). Map shows how Venezuela’s oil reserves compare to the rest of the world.

    20.Institute for Energy Research / IEA. (2024). Strait of Hormuz factsheet.

    ©️2026 Amal Zadok. All rights reserved.

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